12-Year Commercial Stage Oncology Focused Bio History Incl Changes in Share Price Since FDA Approval

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This is not investment advice. In this video we review all 59 new commercial-stage oncology focused biopharma companies over the last 12 years, or all 59 such bios since January 1, 2013. You will find the share price of the new commercial-stage oncology focused bio as of February 7, 2025 versus their share price 2 days after FDA approval. We note 12 of the 13 such bios sold at meaningful gains compared to their share price 2 days after FDA approval were acquired within 2 years of approval. 6 of the 7 sold at meaningful losses waited for well over 2 years to sell. 3 of the 59 went bankrupt or were otherwise delisted where last trades were for pennies a share resulting in total losses for shareholders who held during the period. Finally, it appears only 5 of the 36 commercial-stage oncology focused biopharmas still independent trade at a higher share price as of 2/7/2025 versus 2 days post approval. As near as we can tell, only 2 of the 59 were fortunate enough to get a second cancer therapy approved by the FDA. This is consistent with study after study that concludes between 95 & 98% of new cancer drugs in a Phase 1 trial are never approved.

The message appears simple & clear as can be. In this peer group, the odds appear overwhelming shareholder value is only maximized via M&A exit strategies as soon as possible after FDA approval. Of course there will be exceptions but the 95 to 98% fail rate speaks for itself. This does not consider the virtue of selling to scale via consolidation to hopefully lower healthcare costs in general.

This is for entertainment purposes only. This is not investment advice.
Category
Oncology
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